After International SOS, its competitor A3M has also published its Risk Map for this year. It divides the earth into five risk levels – from „very low“ to „very high“.At the turn of the year, the crisis early warning company A3M published the latest version of its Risk Map. Compared to the previous year, the picture has changed, above all due to the Russian attack on Ukraine. As a result, there is also an increased risk in Russia due to the danger of arbitrariness, arrests and shelling in the border area. Ukraine is rated completely red („very high risk“). 
A3M has also placed Iran in the highest risk category due to violent protests and arrests. In contrast, the situation in Ethiopia has stabilised. There, the hostile parties concluded a peace agreement in November 2022. However, renewed escalations cannot be ruled out.

The situation in the regions of Mardin and Diyarbakir in south-eastern Turkey has also improved. As elections are scheduled for this year, violent incidents are also conceivable there. 

Deterioration in Latin America

The security situation has deteriorated in several countries in South and Central America. This is true for the south of Colombia as well as in the Vraem region in Peru and in the (north) east of Nicaragua. Crime and violence are the main reasons for this. 
In Asia, conflicts have escalated again in northwestern Myanmar.

War, violence, strikes and more

Criteria for classification in one of the five categories are:

  • Wars
  • Violent crime against travellers
  • Violent protests
  • Risks from natural hazards
  • Strikes affecting basic services
  • Risks due to inadequate infrastructure and transport (e.g. traffic accidents)
  • Reliability and speed of security forces and emergency services
  • Dangers from terrorist groups

Kosovo and Belarus are still classified as yellow („increased risk“) by A3M. In Kosovo, however, the situation may worsen due to the conflict with Serbia, and in Belarus due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, into which the country could be drawn. 

Germany among the lowest risk countries

A3M classifies the following countries as the lowest risk for travel (dark green): Canada, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Switzerland and Slovakia. In the Arabian Peninsula, only Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are classified as low-risk countries (light green).
In Africa, this only applies to Namibia, Botsuana and Morocco. The majority of African countries pose a high or even very high risk when travelling. In South America, only Argentina, Uruguay and French Guiana still have low risks. 

ISOS sees fewer „highest risk“ countries

A few weeks ago, the health and security service provider International SOS presented its risk map. This is published in three versions – separated according to the factors crime/war, health and mental health (depression, schizophrenia, etc.). ISOS also classifies the countries into five categories.
As far as security is concerned, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Switzerland and Slovenia receive the best rating here. Significantly fewer states than in A3M are classified in the worst category (highest risk). Besides Ukraine, these include Afghanistan, parts of Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Somalia, parts of Sudan and Mali.

Quelle FVW